Buying Cray stock now would be catching a falling knife

Seattle, Washington headquartered Cray Inc.'s stock is down 10% in after-hours trading tonight at $16.75. The stock recorded an after hours trading volume 30.7K. The Company's shares are trading at a PE ratio of 66. Additionally, the stock has a Beta of 1.78.

Cray shares have declined 10 percent since the beginning of the year. In the final minutes of trading on Tuesday, shares hit $18.55, a drop of 53% in the last 12 months.

Cray sales for the first quarter of 2017 was $59.0 million, a drop of 44% compared to $105.5 million in the first quarter of 2016. Net loss for the first quarter of 2017 was $19.2 million, or $0.48 per diluted share, compared to a net loss of $5.0 million, or $0.13 per diluted share in the first quarter of 2016. Non-GAAP net loss was $28.4 million, or $0.71 per diluted share for the first quarter of 2017, compared to non-GAAP net loss of $5.3 million, or $0.13 per diluted share for the same period of 2016.

Overall gross profit margin on a GAAP and Non-GAAP basis for the first quarter of 2017 was 40%, compared to 38% for the first quarter of 2016.

Operating expenses for the first quarter of 2017 were $56.1 million, compared to $49.2 million for the first quarter of 2016. Non-GAAP operating expenses for the first quarter of 2017 were $53.3 million, compared to $46.3 million for the first quarter of 2016.

As of March 31, 2017, cash, investments and restricted cash totaled $285 million. Working capital at the end of the first quarter was $350 million, compared to $373 million at the end of 2016.

“As expected, we got off to a slower start to the year,” said Peter Ungaro, president and CEO of Cray. “While activity at the high-end of the supercomputing market continues to be relatively slow and our visibility remains limited, our competitive position remains strong. We were recently awarded several significant new contracts in the worldwide weather and climate segment — a market where our leadership position continues to expand. We also released our 2017 revenue outlook today which, driven by the ongoing market conditions, is significantly lower than where we finished 2016. Despite this, we continue to be confident in our ability to drive long-term growth over time.”

Outlook
For 2017, while a wide range of results remains possible, Cray expects revenue to be in the range of $400-$450 million for the year. Revenue in the second quarter of 2017 is expected to be approximately $60 million. GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins for the year are expected to be in the low- to mid-30% range. Non-GAAP operating expenses for 2017 are expected to be roughly flat with 2016 levels. For 2017, GAAP operating expenses are anticipated to be about $12 million higher than non-GAAP operating expenses, and GAAP gross profit is expected to be about $1 million lower than non-GAAP gross profit.